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Keep accurate records over time to track seasonal patterns and use these figures as the basis for future projections. For a public facility that is a sports facility, 857 "sales tax revenues" shall include such revenues generated by transactions taking place upon the 858 premises of a baseball stadium or structures attached thereto. Anticipated State average revenue availability per student means the sum of all anticipated total county revenue availability divided by the average daily membership for the State. We have to consistently calculate the expected value of our decisions and in the long-term we will win enough times that we end up ahead. The Licensee shall, along with the Expected Revenue Calculation or at such other time and periodicity the Commission may specifically permit file the application containing tariff proposals and the revision to the existing tariffs approved by the Commission to match the revenue requirements of the Licensee. ($50) + $100 = $50 964. One of the most famous lines from Citizen Kane is, "It's no trick to make an awful lot of money, if that's all you want is to do is make a lot of money." If only that statement were as true as it seemed. This phenomenon is known as loss aversion and was discovered by Daniel Kahneman. Anticipated county property tax revenue availability means the, Most comprehensive library of legal defined terms on your mobile device, All contents of the lawinsider.com excluding publicly sourced documents are Copyright 2013-, Anticipated State average revenue availability per student, Anticipated county property tax revenue availability. of this title, as limited herein. Expected Amortization Schedule means, with respect to any Tranche, the expected amortization schedule related thereto set forth in the Series Supplement. Step 3. When calculating the number of table covers that your restaurant will be able to serve, don't assume that all of your tables will be full, even during peak times. Charting this enables you to see at what point revenue improves or worsens as the data is manipulated. When you're in the startup stage, it's much easier to forecast expenses than revenues. If we flip a fair coin we have a 50% chance of coming up heads and a 50% chance of coming up tails. $9 + $0 Devra Gartenstein is an omnivore who has published several vegan cookbooks. The concept ofexpected value will help you to identify profitable business situations that would be otherwise missed. All rights reserved. This "revenue" will be adjusted to represent as closely as possible the results which, but for the "damage", would have been obtained during the comparable period after the "damage". Keep in mind that this is gross revenue. Lets look at a classicexample: the coin flip. Restaurants: 85% of revenue goes to expenses and . Dont leave the $500 on the table. This is known as tilt. All those reasons combined are why Im happy to take a financial negative expected value deal. What Percentage of Gross Revenue Should Be Payroll for a Restaurant? Modified adjusted gross income means federal adjusted gross income: Adjusted EBIT means, for any accounting period, net income (or net loss) of NAI and its Subsidiaries (determined on a consolidated basis), plus the amounts (if any) which, in the determination of net income (or net loss) for such period, have been deducted for (a) interest expense, (b) income tax expense (c) rent expense under leases of property, and (d) Permitted Non-Cash Charges. 1035 Natoma Street, San Francisco . point (BEP) and increase its margin of safety. The flop comes and the fish checks; now it is your turn to make a decision. Some businesses have more than one source of revenue resulting from various divisions, operations or services. Only sales income is considered part of gross revenue. January 20, 2022. In other words, we lose only a few times which means that we experience little variance. Imagine youre the owner of a business with one employee and you have to write a report for a client. We are used to compare outcomes and choose what feels best. 1. (50%)($10)+(50%)($0) The term "revenue" includes all money earned before it is divided into salaries, marketing payments, expenses and so forth. Sales revenue = 20,000 x 5 Sale revenue = $100,000 Net Revenue Formula: Despite the fact that your employee takes three times longer you save $10. An expected return is calculated by multiplying potential outcomes by the odds of them. The expected income is the mean service charge received from the users and it is equal to (4) The cost has two components. Expected value = $50. ID 14317. More than $198. If we only take rigged coin flips that give us a 90% chance of winning we can expect to win very often. Delegating the report will give you the best financial result. Additionally it gives me peace of mind, which I value greatly. This could mean a fiscal year (e.g., July 1 - June 30) or the calendar year (i.e., January 1 - December 31). If the fishfolds less than 33% of the time you lose money (again to simplify this example we assume the situation in a vacuum). 3. How to identify growth opportunities (in five minutes), The concept of expected value in business. Nursing Management Business and Economics Psychology +99. A math tee shirt business is expected to generate $35, 000 in revenue per year for the next 15 years. By the end of 2024, annual business travel spending is projected to reach approximately $1.4 trillion, nearly equaling the 2019 pre-pandemic revenue peak of $1.43 trillion. That is irrelevant in this situation because we have a positive expected value move no matter what cards youhold. If we are wrong and it is a fair, 50-50, coin we get a very different expected value calculation. Once you select your writer, put the needed funds on your balance and we'll get started. Throttle growth projections: you need to maintain growth rates to get new funding. It helps you set goals, plan for the future and make smarter decisions about growth. Adjusted EBITDA means, with respect to any Person for any period, the Consolidated Net Income of such Person for such period plus, without duplication, to the extent the same was deducted in calculating Consolidated Net Income: Actual EBITDA has the meaning set forth in the Credit Agreement dated as of July 30, 2004 by and among Foundation PA Coal Company, as borrower, FC 2 Corp. and Foundation Coal Corporation, as guarantors, and the lenders named therein as in effect on the date hereof. 4 Gross Profit means gross receipts minus the amount actually expended for the payment of prize awards. The Licensee shall, along with the Expected Revenue Calculation or at such other time and periodicity the Commission may specifically permit file the application containing tariff proposals and the revision to the existing tariffs approved by the Commission to match the revenue requirements of the Licensee. The term income refers to the amount earned by a business after deductions are made, including operational expenses, taxes and salaries. Min Beds . Uncovered expenditures means the costs to the health maintenance organization for health care services that are the obligation of the health maintenance organization, for which a covered person may also be liable in the event of the health maintenance organizations insolvency and for which no alternative arrangements have been made that are acceptable to the commissioner. Business revenue is the grand total of your income generated by the sales of your products or services for a specific accounting period. If the Finance model is onetime, then the product expected revenue should only go in that month. The term projected income refers to the amount generated by the company after all deductions have been made. You might fear a 70% chance of losing $10,000, but if you invest with logic instead of emotion the decision is easy. Projected PJM Market Revenues means a component of the Market Seller Offer Cap calculated in accordance with Tariff, Attachment DD, section 6. Thesis on Management. Possible recurring revenue streams include: Subscription fees (e.g., monthly fees for Netflix) Renting, leasing, or lending assets Licensing content to third parties Brokerage fees The best-case scenario is that you attract many new customers and profit $25,000. These businesses must track expected revenue from each revenue source in order to calculate total expected revenue. Expected Revenue. Your email address will not be published. Do you recognize this in yourself? Strategic Planning Kit For Dummies. It's important to note that the periods must be of equal size; a month must be compared to a subsequent month, a quarter to a quarter, and a year to a year. What we can see is that even in the worst-case scenario we make, on average, a profitable decision. This is wrong. You really need to brace yourself financially while running an f&b business," Palak Shah, Founder, Plush Caf in Mumbai. It is the top line (or gross income) figure from which. Regardless of the reasons behind your rate of table turnover, realistic revenue projections take this variable into account. The average small business owner makes $71,813 a year. If wekeep making profitable decisions all the time wewill end up far ahead. Revenue may be stagnant or shrink, as you need to seek investment capital. Revenue per available room will reach $97 by the end of 2022, just shy of the national average in 2019, according to a new CBRE report. The Licensee shall follow the methodology, Procedures and other directions included in the Tariff Regulations and in other orders of the Commission as may be issued from time to time, while filing the Statement of Expected Revenue from charges and for proposing or amending any or all of its tariffs. Adjusted Gross Sales means the amount of gross sales invoiced by a Developing Party, its Affiliates (which, with respect to Roche Bioscience, shall include Genentech for purposes of this Section 1.2 only), or sublicensees for a Product to Third Parties less deductions of returns (including withdrawals and recalls), rebates (price reductions, including Medicaid and similar types of rebates, e.g. Required fields are marked *. On the contrary, if we start taking coin flips where we have 51% chance of winning we start losing a lot more. Unlike one-time deals or one-off . Tax Revenue means, with respect to the Project Area, (a) those tax revenues referred to (1) in the last sentence of the first paragraph of Article VIII, Section 12 of the Constitution of the State and (2) in Section 18-2147, Reissue Revised Statutes of Nebraska, as amended, and (b) all payments made in lieu thereof. What's a Reasonable Profit Margin for Restaurants? As a restaurant owner, it would be convenient to have a crystal ball that tells you how many customers will dine at your establishment and how much they will spend. display: none !important; Gross revenue formula for a service-based business is: Gross Revenue = Number of Customers x Average Price of Services You may also see these expressed as the sales revenue formula. Expected Marginal Seat Revenue) -EMSR models: EMSRa and EMSRb William M. Swan (2002) and Richard Klophaus (2006) examined the methods of assessing true demand, the issue of describing demand using . Increasing revenue also allows a business to get past its break-even. Expected value is a predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. Thereport takes you 1 hour to completeand the employee will take 3 hours. Renewal/Decline: This period can sneak up on you . Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Revenue models prioritize the most effective ways to make money based on what is offered and who pays for it. It might be more accurate to say, "There are a lot of ways to make a lot of money ." That's never been truer for software businesses in particular than in the past 10-15 years, with . Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA means, for any period, an amount determined for Company and its Subsidiaries on a consolidated basis equal to (i) the sum, without duplication, of the amounts for such period of (a) Consolidated Net Income, (b) Consolidated Interest Expense, (c) provisions for taxes based on income, (d) total depreciation expense, (e) total amortization expense, and (f) other non-Cash items reducing Consolidated Net Income (excluding any such non-Cash item to the extent that it represents an accrual or reserve for potential Cash items in any future period or amortization of a prepaid Cash item that was paid in a prior period), minus (ii) other non-Cash items increasing Consolidated Net Income for such period (excluding any such non-Cash item to the extent it represents the reversal of an accrual or reserve for potential Cash item in any prior period). The system automatically calculates Expected Revenue of the work item having sub-items as a sum of:. This then narrows our focus to businesses with $25,000 to $500,000 in annual receipts. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA means, for any period, an amount determined for Company and its Subsidiaries on a consolidated basis equal to (i) the sum, without duplication, of the amounts for such period of (a) Consolidated Net Income, (b) Consolidated Interest Expense, (c) provisions for taxes based on income, (d) total depreciation expense, (e) total amortization expense, and (f) other non-Cash items reducing Consolidated Net Income (excluding any such non-Cash item to the extent that it represents an accrual or reserve for potential Cash items in any future period or amortization of a prepaid Cash item that was paid in a prior period), minus (ii) other non-Cash items increasing Consolidated Net Income for such period (excluding any such non-Cash item to the extent it represents the reversal of an accrual or reserve for potential Cash item in any prior period). Research the demographics of your locale to understand whether its population shifts seasonally and whether local customers are involved in industries such as skiing that bring in extra revenue at certain times of year. an entity that early adopts in an interim period should apply the amendments (1) retrospectively to all business combinations for which the acquisition date occurs on or after the beginning of the fiscal year that includes the interim period of early application and (2) prospectively to all business combinations that occur on or after the date of By simply amending the starting revenue (60,000) or changing the fixed amount (50,000) used in the revenue projection formula, the projections for years 1 through 5 can be quickly recalculated. We expected to break even within four to six months but courtesy to the lockdown your BEP is not always accurate so if you're one of those who's investing their capital via loans or borrowed funds you might as well reconsider. The worst-case scenario is that you fail to attract any extra customers and lose $10,000. Projected actual emissions means the maximum annual rate, in tons per year, at which an existing emissions unit is projected to emit a regulated NSR pollutant in any one of the 5 years (12-month period) following the date the unit resumes regular operation after the project, or in any one of the 10 years following that date, if the project involves increasing the emissions units design capacity or its potential to emit that regulated NSR pollutant, and full utilization of the unit would result in a significant emissions increase, or a significant net emissions increase at the major stationary source. Expected Revenue Business Plan: 14 Customer reviews. Investment to Conversion Of 4000 PPC ad clicks, 1.5% or 60 completed a purchase. Planned income is also influenced by the amount of revenue coming into the business, but the income figure is increased by reducing expenses and bonus packages. If the income is reinvested in the business at a rate of 1% per year compounded continuously, determine the future value of this income stream at the end of 15 years. We want to takecalculated risks when it makes sense. Now lets apply this concept tobusiness. Inpoker anamateurplays emotionally and tries to avoid losing money, whereas the professional uses logic to take advantage of a positive expected value situation. So start with estimates for the most common categories of expenses as . Average Transaction to Return (Revenue, Margins, and ROMI) Average Lifetime (LT) Transactions to Campaign Expected Return (LTVs calculated to total return) Finally, the model ends with an investment decision based on the revenue prediction output. Define Expected Revenue. 331 . No matter your budget, there are a number of strategies that small business owners can use to increase profits and improve the bottom lines. A business may receive income and capital appreciation from stocks, bonds, and interest-bearing deposit accounts. People cost themselves lots of money by making decisionsbased on their emotions. Even if we make the correct decision and playin situations where we have an edge we wont always win. Using the most recent statistics available, the average gross revenue for this group of businesses is just shy of $97,000. It's what you've already sold. Consolidated Revenues means, with respect to any date, the consolidated total revenues of the Group for such date, as reported in the most recently published consolidated financial statements of the Group; Gross Operating Revenues means, for any period of time for any Hotel Property, without duplication, all income and proceeds of sales of every kind (whether in cash or on credit and computed on an accrual basis) received by the owner (or, if such Hotel Property is ground leased, the ground lessee) of such Hotel Property or the applicable Operating Lessee or Manager for the use, occupancy or enjoyment of such Hotel Property or the sale of any goods, services or other items sold on or provided from such Hotel Property in the ordinary course of operation of such Hotel Property, including, without limitation, all income received from tenants, transient guests, lessees, licensees and concessionaires and other services to guests at such Hotel Property, and the proceeds from business interruption insurance, but excluding the following: (i) any excise, sales or use taxes or similar governmental charges collected directly from patrons or guests, or as a part of the sales price of any goods, services or displays, such as gross receipts, admission, cabaret or similar or equivalent taxes; (ii) receipts from condemnation awards or sales in lieu of or under threat of condemnation; (iii) proceeds of insurance (other than business interruption insurance); (iv) other allowances and deductions as provided by the Uniform System in determining the sum contemplated by this definition, by whatever name, it may be called; (v) proceeds of sales, whether dispositions of capital assets, FF&E or equipment (other than sales of Inventory in the ordinary course of business); (vi) gross receipts received by tenants, lessees (other than Operating Lessees), licensees or concessionaires of the owner (or, if such Hotel Property is ground leased, the ground lessee) of such Hotel Property; (vii) consideration received at such Hotel Property for hotel accommodations, goods and services to be provided at other hotels although arranged by, for or on behalf of, and paid over to, the applicable Manager; (viii) tips, service charges and gratuities collected for the benefit of employees; (ix) proceeds of any financing; (x) working capital provided by the Parent Guarantor or any Subsidiary of the Parent Guarantor or the applicable Operating Lessee; (xi) amounts collected from guests or patrons of such Hotel Property on behalf of tenants of such Hotel Property and other third parties; (xii) the value of any goods or services in excess of actual amounts paid (in cash or services) provided by the applicable Manager on a complimentary or discounted basis; and (xiii) other income or proceeds resulting other than from the use or occupancy of such Hotel Property, or any part thereof, or other than from the sale of goods, services or other items sold on or provided from such Hotel Property in the ordinary course of business. I know this is afinanciallynegativeexpected value decision for me because it is financially positive expected value for the insurance company. Investment income is a separate entry on the income statement. The ex-pected outcome is easy to describe in terms of expected valuations: The expected revenue is equal to . A March 2020 survey of global B2B decision makers revealed that 38 percent of financial service B2B companies expect 41 to 60 . Revenue Formula Revenue is total sales of goods and services done by the company in a period. Other. Use expected value to take calculated risks when it makes sense and do not let short-term variance discourage you. Expected value is one of the most important decision making concepts that people almost never use. You can lose while making the right decision, but dont be results orientated and keep pushing small edges. ID 10243. Consolidated Revenue means, for any period, the revenues of the Borrower and its Consolidated Subsidiaries for such period, determined in accordance with GAAP. Thecosts for you are 1 x $100 = $100. Analysts polled by FactSet expected Broadcom earnings of $10.29 a share on sales of $8.9 billion. Anticipated State average revenue availability per student means the sum of all anticipated total county revenue availability divided by the average daily membership for the State. Projecting income and revenue are important steps in planning in terms of the companys finances. Authorized users can see a work item's Expected Revenue in the Revenue or Extended Budget view of either the Work Items page or the Current Project page or in the Properties of the work item.. Sales Tax Revenues means such tax collections realized under the Virginia Retail Sales and Use Tax 847 Act ( 58.1-600 et seq.) Hotels and accommodation: 92% of revenue goes to expenses and taxes, leaving 8% profit. Expected revenue is the sum of the value in each stage multiplied by that stage's probability. Step 1. Menu prices are the basis of sales revenue. Patriot Software suggests that average percentage expenses for types of business, including all costs and taxes, are as follows: Construction: 95% of revenue goes to expenses and taxes, leaving 5% profit. Another cognitive bias that makes it difficult to estimate outcomes correctly is the optimism bias. A restaurant that charges $20 per entre will bring in four times as much revenue as a restaurant that charges $5 per entre and serves the same number of customers. Expected Revenue from the Licensed Business, Non-Tariff Income and income from Other Business and other matters considered appropriate by the Transmission Licensee. Imagine you have the opportunity to buy a .com domain name for $10,000. Revenue is the value of all sales of goods and services recognized by a company in a period. If I break the computer paying $1500 does not ruin me, so I decide to take the higher variance, but more profitable option by not insuring myself. Future value (exact value) = dollars Future value (rounded to the nearest cent) = dollars [-/1 Points] Math 110 Course . Multiply the average customer spend by the total number of seats to come up with the maximum revenue you can make for each meal. Imagine you have the opportunity to buy a .com domain name for $10,000. Expected value in business. 8 Expected Revenue Business Plan - 599 Orders prepared. Determine each revenue source. Now let's apply this concept to business. Our equation is now: (3) E ( R) = ( 1 2 r + r 2) [ winner's payment if X r] + r ( 2 r r 2) This part I was least confident what the winner's payment would be if the second highest random variable was greater than the reserve. 86.3% of small business owners make less than $100,000 a year in income. A forecast that will stand up to detailed analysis and scrutiny. The best-case scenario is that you attract many new customers and profit $25,000. The expected return is the amount of profit or loss an investor can anticipate receiving on an investment. The proposed investment plan for the forthcoming financial year will be submitted by the Licensee to the Commission along with the "Expected Revenue Calculation" filed in terms of condition 24, for approval by the Commission. I made a negative expected value decision, in dollar terms, by taking private healthcare cover. In other words, the terms projected and expected are interchangeable terms when it comes to discussing planned income or sales figures. To increase revenue for your small business, you should focus on your customers, boost your marketing and sales efforts, review your pricing strategies and expand your market. If you have two people and one wins $100 on the coin flip and the other loses $100 on the coin flip you would expect that person 1 would gain as much satisfaction as that person 2 loses. If we flip the coin often enough we overcome the short-term variance and end up with an equal number of heads and tails. In other words, the expected value shows us how much we can expect to win or lose (on average) in a specific situation. 2019 www.azcentral.com. Itwill be very profitable in the end. We respect your privacy and guarantee unfailing data confidentiality. Restaurants are subject to seasonal fluctuations relative to variables such as tourist population, weather and holidays. It is important to calculate the estimate outcomes rather correctly. However, this only applies if costs stay the same or . I know the winner's payment is the second . chargebacks), volume (quantity) discounts, discounts granted at the time of invoicing, sales taxes and other taxes (other than income taxes), all to the extent directly linked to and included in the gross sales amount as computed on a product by product basis for the countries concerned. Similarly, P r [ X r] = 1 F X 1 ( r) = 1 2 r + r 2. Information regarding the formula and results of the related calculations will be provided to Holders through Payment Date statements in advance of the Termination Date. It is likelythatpeople think we are crazy when we take a 51% expected value situation and lose. 70% x ($10,000) = ($7,000) Expected value encourages risks when it makes sense. However, your forecast is only as effective as you make it. Your time is worth $100 an hour and you finish the task in 1 hour. Estimated revenue means the amount of revenue estimated to be received from all sources during the budget year in each fund for which a budget is being prepared. Rate Calculation Business Day means a day (other than a Saturday or Sunday) on which commercial banks are open for general business (including dealings in foreign exchange) in Hong Kong and New York City; Estimated revenue means the amount of revenue estimated to be received from all sources during the budget year in each fund for which a budget is being prepared. Expected value= $5. Do you play to win or play to not lose? You raise pre-flop and the fish calls. Loss aversion is the human tendency to strongly prefer avoiding a loss to receiving a gain. The Licensee shall file the Expected Revenue Calculation and the application containing tariff proposals in the manner provided in the Conduct of Business Regulations in complete shape and consistent with the Regulations under section 61 read with Section 64 of the Act. Revenue models are not to be confused with pricing models, which is when a business considers the products' value and target . Expected Revenue from the proposed Wheeling Tariff including additional surcharge, etc. To know the business' projected revenue, companies should have a detailed summary of the possible expenses. Section 62(5) of the Electricity Act, 2003, read with Section 27(1) of the Karnataka Electricity Reform Act, 1999, empowers the Commission to specify, from time to time, the methodologies and the procedure to be observed by the licensees in calculating the Expected Revenue from Charges (ERC). Net income will be notably less. Keep it super simple: you'll need to show this on pitch deck slides. Adjusted EBITDA means, with respect to any Person for any period, the Consolidated Net Income of such Person for such period plus, without duplication, to the extent the same was deducted in calculating Consolidated Net Income: Gross Profits means the gross profits calculated under section 4; Operating Revenues means, without duplication, all revenues and receipts of the Borrowers from operation of the Properties or otherwise arising in respect of the Properties which are properly allocable to the Properties for the applicable period in accordance with GAAP, including, without limitation, all hotel receipts, revenues and credit card receipts collected from guest rooms, restaurants and bars (including without limitation, service charges for employees and staff), mini-bars, meeting rooms, banquet rooms, apartments, parking and recreational facilities, health club membership fees, food and beverage wholesale and retail sales, service charges, convention services, special events, audio-visual services, boat cruises, travel agency fees, internet booking fees, telephone charges, laundry services, vending machines and otherwise, all rents, revenues and receipts now existing or hereafter arising or created out of the sale, lease, sublease, license, concession or other grant of the right of the possession, use or occupancy of all or any portion of the Properties or personalty located thereon, or rendering of service by any of the Borrowers or any operator or manager of the hotel or commercial space (including, without limitation, from the rental of any office space, retail space, guest rooms or other space, halls, stores and deposits securing reservations of such space (only to the extent such deposits are not required to be returned or refunded to the depositor)), proceeds from rental or business interruption insurance relating to business interruption or loss of income for the period in question and any other items of revenue which would be included in operating revenues under the Uniform System; but excluding proceeds from the sale of FF&E, abatements, reductions or refunds of real estate or personal property taxes relating to the Properties, dividends on insurance policies relating to the Properties, condemnation proceeds arising from a temporary taking of all or a part of any Properties, security and other deposits until they are forfeited by the depositor, advance rentals until they are earned, proceeds from a sale, financing or other disposition of the Properties or any part thereof or interest therein and other non-recurring revenues as determined by Lender, insurance proceeds (other than proceeds from rental or business interruption insurance), other condemnation proceeds, capital contributions or loans to any of the Borrowers, disbursements to any of the Borrowers from the Reserves, sales, use and occupancy taxes collected from customers or patrons of the Properties to be remitted to the applicable taxing authorities, and gratuities or service charges collected on behalf of and remitted to employees or contractors of the Properties. 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